Technosocial Predictive Analytics
Papers from the 2009 AAAI Spring Symposium
Antonio Sanfilippo, Program Chair
Technical Report SS-09-09. Published by The AAAI Press, Menlo Park, California. This technical report is also available in book and CD format.
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Contents
Organizing Committee / iii
Antonio Sanfilippo
Preface / vii
Antonio Sanfilippo
Improved Forecast with a Combination of Mechanistic and Statistical Predictive Models / 1
Georgiy V. Bobashev, Stephen P. Ellner, Barbara A. Bailey
A Serious Game for the Illumination of Alternative Fuel and Vehicle Transitions / 4
Joel Bremson
Towards a Role of Visualization in Social Modeling / 8
Remco Chang, Alex Godwin, Robert Kosara, William Ribarsky
Knowledge Encapsulation Framework for Collaborative Social Modeling / 12
Andrew J. Cowell, Michelle L. Gregory, Eric J. Marshall, Liam McGrath
Location Segmentation, Inference and Prediction for Anticipatory Computing / 20
Nathan Eagle, Aaron Clauset, John A. Quinn
Robust Coherence: An Approach to Multi-Agent Experience-Based Planning / 26
Anthony Ford
An Agent-Based Model of the English Housing Market / 30
Nigel Gilbert, John C. Hawksworth, Paul A. Swinney
Predictive Analysis for Social Processes / 36
Kristin Glass, Richard Colbaugh, Dennis Engi
The Geometry of Social Anticipation / 42
H. T. Goranson
Agreeing to Disagree: Leveraging Consensus and Divergence
in Bayesian Belief Aggregation / 49
Kshanti A. Greene, George F. Luger
The Challenge of the Black Box: Technosocial Predictive Analytics
(TPA) and the Real World / 55
Lars Hanson, Anne Russell
Managing Complex Network Operation with Predictive Analytics / 59
Zhenyu Huang, Pak Chung Wong, Patrick Mackey, Yousu Chen, Jian Ma, Kevin Schneider, Frank L. Greitzer
Supporting a Robust Decision Space / 66
Gary L. Klein, Mark Pfaff, Jill L. Drury
Fingerprinting Leading Indicators of WMD Terrorism: An Integrated Modeling Approach / 72
Lawrence A. Kuznar, Victor Asal, Karl Rethemeyer, Krishna Pattipati, Robert Popp, Steven Shellman
Resilience, Climate Change, and Security: Modeling the Connections / 76
Elizabeth L. Malone, R. César Izaurralde, Allison M. Thomson, Larry G. Morgan
Collaborative Systems Modeling for Complex Energy Infrastructure: The Case of the Cape and Islands Collaborative Regional Energy Planning / 82
Ali Mostashari
User-Created and User-Adaptable Technosocial Modeling Methods / 88
Jonathan Pfautz, Eric Carlson, David Koelle, Emilie Roth
A Dimension-Reduction Framework for Human Behavioral Time Series Data / 95
Santi Phithakkitnukoon, Ram Dantu
A Framework for the Systematic Collection of Open Source Intelligence / 102
Line C. Pouchard, Jonathan M. Dobson, Joseph P. Trien
Serious Gaming for Predictive Analytics / 108
Roderick M. Riensche, Patrick R. Paulson, Gary R. Danielson, Stephen D. Unwin, R. Scott Butner, Sarah M. Miller, Lyndsey R. Franklin, Nino Zuljevic
An Evidential Path Logic for Multi-Relational Networks / 114
Marko A. Rodriguez, Joe Geldart
Computational Methods to Discover Sets of Patterns of Behaviors that Precede Political Events of Interest / 120
Kurt Rohloff, Victor Asal
User-Centered Evaluation of Technosocial Predictive Analysis / 126
Jean Scholtz, Mark Whiting
Reading the Behavior Signature: Predicting Leader Personality from Individual and Group Actions / 130
Paul J. Sticha, Elise A. Weaver, Joseph A. Tatman, Suzanne M. Mahoney, Dennis M. Buede
Interactive Clinical Query Derivation and Evaluation / 137
Pinar Wennerberg, Sonja Zillner, Paul Buitelaar
Technosocial Modeling of IED Threat Scenarios and Attack / 142
Paul Whitney, Alan Brothers, Garill Coles, Jonathan Young, Katherine Wolf, Sandy Thompson, David Niesen, John Madsen, Cindy Henderson
Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on U.S. Power Grids and Its Wider Implications on National Security / 148
Pak Chung Wong, L. Ruby Leung, Ning Lu, Mia Paget, James Correia Jr., Wei Jiang, Patrick Mackey, Z. Todd Taylor, YuLong Xie, Jianhua Xu, Steve Unwin, Antonio Sanfilippo
A Blackboard-based Approach Towards Predictive Analytics / 154
Jia Yue, Anita Raja, Dingxiang Liu, Xiaoyu Wang, William Ribarsky
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