Machine Aggregation of Human Judgment
Papers from the 2012 AAAI Fall Symposium
Wei Sun, Program Chair
Technical Report FS-12-06. Published by The AAAI Press, Menlo Park, California
This technical report is also available in book format.
Contents
Organizing Committee and Preface
Wei Sun
Improving Forecasting Accuracy Using Bayesian Network Decomposition in Prediction Markets
Anamaria Berea, Daniel Maxwell, Charles Twardy
Selective Sampling of Labelers for Approximating the Crowd
Seyda Ertekin, Haym Hirsh, Cynthia Rudin
Heuristics for Improving Forecast Aggregation
Clifton Forlines, Sarah Miller, Srinivasamurthy Prakash, John Irvine
Judgement Swapping and Aggregation
Aidan Lyon, Fiona Fidler, Mark Burgman
On the Complexity of Bribery and Manipulation in Tournaments with Uncertain Information
Nicholas Scott Mattei, Judy Goldsmith, Andrew Klapper
Improving Predictions with Hybrid Markets
Yiftach Nagar, Thomas W. Malone
The Good Judgment Project: A Large Scale Test of Different Methods of Combining Expert Predictions
Lyle Ungar, Barbara Mellers, Ville Satopää, Philip Tetlock, Jon Baron
Cluster-Weighted Aggregation
H. Van Dyke Parunak
Estimating Diversity among Forecaster Models
H. Van Dyke Parunak, Elizabeth Downs
An Information-Theoretic Metric for Collective Human Judgment
Tamsyn Peronel Waterhouse
Generalized Weighted Model Counting: An Efficient Monte-Carlo Meta-Algorithm
Lirong Xia
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