Knowledge Acquisition for Adversary Course of Action Prediction Models

Scott M. Brown, Eugene Santos Jr., and Benjamin Bell

Intelligence Preparation of the Battlespace (IPB) is a predominantly "gray matter-based" fusion and information synthesis process conducted to predict possible future adversary courses of action. The purpose is to understand where the enemy is in the battlespace, and to infer what we believe he will do next. From that understanding, military commanders plan their own course of action. As the state of the art improves, we are in a position to begin applying technologies to move the labor-intensive parts of IPB to the computer, allowing the planner to perform those tasks that are more suited to human capabilities. This is a primary focus of our research effort. This paper presents the approaches that we are adopting to acquire the knowledge necessary to build models to assist decision makers determine adversary intent. We discuss how the IPB process can assist with knowledge acquisition and we present a detailed discussion of our AII system and the techniques we have developed to collect and process the data necessary to map observations of the adversary into evidence to support reasoning about the adversary’s intent.

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