Agent-based Simulation of Geo-Political Conflict

Glenn Taylor, Richard Frederiksen, Russell R. Vane III, and Edward Waltz

The intelligence analysis task of anticipating crises and providing decision makers with reasonable (supportable, explainable) possible futures is extremely difficult. To perform this task, a team of analysts must consider the political, economic, and military aspects of national governments and non-governmental organizations. This paper describes an agent-based simulation framework, the Advanced Global Intelligence and Leadership Experiment (AGILE), for building executable models for conducting regional analysis. AGILE is a full-featured simulation framework that enables the specification of simulation parameters, models and agents, lets the user define and run simulations under varying conditions, and enables post-run analysis of the results. In this paper, we describe the system implementation, and some examples of its use in a pseudo-operational setting.

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